James Gruber's Blog

I must admit to having a serious neck strain from the continuous shaking of my head since the proposed appointment of Janet Yellen as Federal Reserve chief mid-week.

There’s growing speculation that China will soon undertake substantial reforms to its financial system to address increasing risks from escalating debt. First, the central government will take over some local government spending functions...

China has fallen into the western-style trap of relying on more debt to produce enough economic growth to ward off a serious downturn. India’s in trouble after backtracking on the broad-ranging reforms of the early 1990s which fuelled an average 6% GDP growth over the past two decades.

So markets wait with bated breath on the words of a bearded academic-turned-central-banker on September 18. Bond king, Bill Gross of Pimco, probably has it right suggesting Ben Bernanke and his Fed have already agreed on...

In my experience, markets don’t deal well with several crises emerging at the one time. Give them just QE tapering and they may be able to adapt, but throw Syria and an Asian currency mess into the mix, and it can make for a wild ride.

The vast majority of people who are bearish on China’s economy and stock market now were cheerleaders just 18 months ago. It represents a remarkable 180 degree turn that’s little talked about.

Here’s what your stockbroker and the media aren’t telling you: the world is more indebted now than it was at the height of the financial bubble in 2007. That’s right. Despite the extraordinary government intervention of the past six years.

The best investment ideas rarely come from the latest news item or brokerage research report. They’re often found on the fringes of finance or outside the field altogether.

Asset returns were all over the map in the first half of 2013. Stocks outperformed bonds. But within equities, developed markets pummelled emerging markets, with the U.S. and Japan leading the way.

There’s a traders saying that warns against trying to “catch a falling knife”. That is, you shouldn’t buy assets which have sharply declined as they’re likely to go down further before there’s any recovery.