Urban Carmel's Blog

In the past year, S&P profits have grown 46% yoy. Sales are 4.5% higher. By some measures, profit margins are back at their prior highs. This is a remarkable turnaround from a year ago when profits had declined by 15% and most investors...

The macro data from the past month continues to mostly point to positive growth. On balance, the evidence suggests the imminent onset of a recession is unlikely. That said, there are some signs of weakness creeping into the data.

Global equities are more than 20% higher than in February. A tailwind for this rally has been the bearish positioning of investors, with fund managers persistently shunning equities in exchange for holding cash.

The macro data from the past month continues to mostly point to positive growth. On balance, the evidence suggests the imminent onset of a recession is unlikely. That said, there are some signs of weakness creeping into the data.

Increasing global trade is not the primary culprit in the decline in US manufacturing employment. Again, output is at an ATH. Manufacturing jobs have fallen with new technology and other means for increasing productivity. The number of employees needed to make the same...

The following table lists every newly elected president in the past 120 years and the time between their inauguration and the start of the next recession. Based on this, the next recession either started a year ago or will not occur at all during the Trump presidency...

The small cap index is at a new all-time high today, having gained more than 13% in the past 10 days. That type of price behavior has historically been very bullish. Add to that (a) positive seasonality and (b) bearish...

Demographics is a key driver of economic growth. Most people focus on the aging of the Boomer generation. But the working-age population in the US has been growing almost as fast as the retirement of Boomers. Millennials are now the largest living generation...

The rising price of copper is probably a good sign that the global economy is non-recessionary. When copper has risen, so has GDP. But the converse is not true: falling copper prices have not signaled a slump in the economy.

The macro data from the past month continues to mostly point to positive growth. On balance, the evidence suggests the imminent onset of a recession is unlikely. That said, there are some signs of weakness creeping into the data.