Urban Carmel's Blog

Writer/Analyst

Wharton. McKinsey. UBS. Been in the securities industry since 1994. Asia ex-pat during 1980s-90s. Blocked by Zero Hedge since 2010.

Also, a regular writer on the financial markets. One of Yahoo Finance's commentators and selected as one of Business Insider's "Top Finance People to Follow" in both 2013 and 2014.

This Is What a Bubble Looks Like: Japan 1989 Edition

By Urban Carmel – Take the US tech bubble of the 1990s, add the subsequent real estate bubble of the 2000s, multiply by two, and you have a good approximation of the events leading to Japan's stock market crash in 1990.

Today Is Not Just Like 1987

By Urban Carmel – In 1987, the stock market crashed. In 2013, the stock market was just like 1987. In 2014, the stock market was just like 1987. In 2016, the stock market was just like 1987. Today, the stock market is just like 1987. Today is not just like 1987...

The Worry About Indexing Is Overblown

Investors are clearly shifting away from actively managed funds to those based on index strategies. Only time will tell, but this has the look of a durable, secular change in investment management. But much of the perceived threat to the market...

May Macro Update: Two Watch Outs Are Retail Sales and Employment Growth

he macro data from the past month continues to mostly point to positive growth. On balance, the evidence suggests the imminent onset of a recession is unlikely. One concern in recent months had been housing, but revised data shows...

May US Market Outlook – Trend, Breadth, Sentiment, and Macro

US equities ended the month of April above or near new all-time highs. There are no significant extremes that suggest the trend higher will suddenly end. But the upcoming "summer months" are normally marked by lower price...

April Macro Update: Employment Growth Continues to Decelerate

The macro data from the past month continues to mostly point to positive growth. On balance, the evidence suggests the imminent onset of a recession is unlikely. One concern in recent months had been housing, but revised data shows...

A Big Tailwind for the Stock Market Has Now Dissipated

A tailwind for the rally over the past year has been the bearish positioning of investors, with fund managers persistently shunning equities in exchange for holding cash. Sentiment has turned bullish. Optimism towards the economy has...

Households' Equity Ownership Reaches 30% - It's Statistical Noise

Households have 30% of their financial assets in equities, the same proportion as they held at bull market peaks in the 1960s and in 2007. Does this mean another bear market is imminent? No. Two of the last three times the purportedly...

March Macro Update: Housing Sales and Starts Rebound

The macro data from the past month continues to mostly point to positive growth. On balance, the evidence suggests the imminent onset of a recession is unlikely. One concern in recent months has been housing, but revised data shows...

The Similarities (and Key Differences) Between 2017 and 2013 So Far

2017 is off to a remarkably similar start to 2013. No two years are ever exactly the same, so there's no reason to suggest that 2017 will repeat the 30% gains achieved in 2013. But many of the technical and fundamental similarities...

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