Urban Carmel's Blog

By Urban Carmel – The macro data from the past month continues to mostly point to positive growth. On balance, the evidence suggests the imminent onset of a recession is unlikely. The bond market agrees with the macro data.

By Urban Carmel – US stocks will likely rise in 2018. By how much is anybody's guess: the standard deviation of annual returns is too wide to get even close to a correct estimate on a consistent basis. Earnings growth implies 6%...

By Urban Carmel – On its own, a flattening yield curve is not an imminent threat to US equities. Under similar circumstances over the past 40 years, the S&P has continued to rise and a recession has been a year or more in the future.

By Urban Carmel – For the third quarter (3Q17), S&P earnings rose 12% yoy, sales grew 6% and profit margins expanded to new all-time highs. These strong results are not due to the rebound in oil prices. Sales for the sectors...

By Urban Carmel – The macro data from the past month continues to mostly point to positive growth. On balance, the evidence suggests the imminent onset of a recession is unlikely. The bond market agrees with the macro data.

By Urban Carmel – How data is presented has a significant affect on the conclusion a reader will draw. Behavioral economists call this framing: "what you see is all there is." Presented below is a mental trick used to mislead readers.

By Urban Carmel – The macro data from the past month continues to mostly point to positive growth. On balance, the evidence suggests the imminent onset of a recession is unlikely. The bond market agrees with...

By Urban Carmel – The macro data from the past month continues to mostly point to positive growth. On balance, the evidence suggests the imminent onset of a recession is unlikely. The bond market agrees with the macro...

By Urban Carmel – The macro data from the past month continues to mostly point to positive growth. On balance, the evidence suggests the imminent onset of a recession is unlikely. The bond market agrees with the macro data.

By Urban Carmel – The macro data from the past month continues to mostly point to positive growth. On balance, the evidence suggests the imminent onset of a recession is unlikely. The bond market agrees with the macro data.