Urban Carmel's Blog

Writer/Analyst

Wharton. McKinsey. UBS. Been in the securities industry since 1994. Asia ex-pat during 1980s-90s. Blocked by Zero Hedge since 2010.

Also, a regular writer on the financial markets. One of Yahoo Finance's commentators and selected as one of Business Insider's "Top Finance People to Follow" in both 2013 and 2014.

January Macro Update: Home Sales, Retail Sales and Manufacturing Surge Higher

By Urban Carmel – The macro data from the past month continues to mostly point to positive growth. On balance, the evidence suggests the imminent onset of a recession is unlikely. The bond market agrees with the macro data.

What to Expect From Equities in 2018

By Urban Carmel – US stocks will likely rise in 2018. By how much is anybody's guess: the standard deviation of annual returns is too wide to get even close to a correct estimate on a consistent basis. Earnings growth implies 6%...

The Flattening Yield Curve Is Not a Threat to US Equities

By Urban Carmel – On its own, a flattening yield curve is not an imminent threat to US equities. Under similar circumstances over the past 40 years, the S&P has continued to rise and a recession has been a year or more in the future.

Solid Sales Growth and Margins at New Highs Drive 3Q17 Results

By Urban Carmel – For the third quarter (3Q17), S&P earnings rose 12% yoy, sales grew 6% and profit margins expanded to new all-time highs. These strong results are not due to the rebound in oil prices. Sales for the sectors...

November Macro Update: Recession Risk Remains Low

By Urban Carmel – The macro data from the past month continues to mostly point to positive growth. On balance, the evidence suggests the imminent onset of a recession is unlikely. The bond market agrees with the macro data.

Using Time, Scaling and Inflation to Frame Data (and Mislead Readers)

By Urban Carmel – How data is presented has a significant affect on the conclusion a reader will draw. Behavioral economists call this framing: "what you see is all there is." Presented below is a mental trick used to mislead readers.

October Macro Update: Hurricanes End 83-Month Employment Expansion

By Urban Carmel – The macro data from the past month continues to mostly point to positive growth. On balance, the evidence suggests the imminent onset of a recession is unlikely. The bond market agrees with...

September Macro Update: Employment Growth Slows Further

By Urban Carmel – The macro data from the past month continues to mostly point to positive growth. On balance, the evidence suggests the imminent onset of a recession is unlikely. The bond market agrees with the macro...

August Macro Update: Slowing Growth in Employment and Consumption

By Urban Carmel – The macro data from the past month continues to mostly point to positive growth. On balance, the evidence suggests the imminent onset of a recession is unlikely. The bond market agrees with the macro data.

July Macro Update: Recession Risk Remains Low

By Urban Carmel – The macro data from the past month continues to mostly point to positive growth. On balance, the evidence suggests the imminent onset of a recession is unlikely. The bond market agrees with the macro data.

invest with us
apple podcast
randomness