Urban Carmel's Blog

By Urban Carmel – The macro data from the past month continues to mostly point to positive growth. On balance, the evidence suggests the imminent onset of a recession is unlikely. The largest risk to the economy is...

By Urban Carmel – The macro data from the past month continues to mostly point to positive growth. On balance, the evidence suggests the imminent onset of a recession is unlikely. The largest risk to the economy is...

By Urban Carmel – Debt is a perennial worry. It's a natural human tendency is to think of debt as bad, that by incurring debt we are living beyond our means. But much of what you hear about debt in the US is hyperbole.

By Urban Carmel – The macro data from the past month continues to mostly point to positive growth. On balance, the evidence suggests the imminent onset of a recession is unlikely. The bond market agrees with the macro data.

By Urban Carmel – It's true that equities fall before the start of most recessions. So why bother following the economy; why not just follow the price of equities? "Market corrections" occur every 20 months, but less than a third of these actually becomes...

By Urban Carmel – Starting around the year 2000, many investors began obsessing over the aging demographic profile in the United States. The concern seemed reasonable. The working age population in Japan had peaked in 1995, 5 years after the Nikkei...

By Urban Carmel – The macro data from the past month continues to mostly point to positive growth. On balance, the evidence suggests the imminent onset of a recession is unlikely. The bond market agrees with the macro data.

By Urban Carmel – The macro data from the past month continues to mostly point to positive growth. On balance, the evidence suggests the imminent onset of a recession is unlikely. The bond market agrees with the macro data.

By Urban Carmel – After gaining more than 7% by late January, US stocks have fallen into a 10% correction. It's the quickest decline of that magnitude from an all-time high in 90 years. While a fall in stocks was not a surprise, the speed and severity certainly were.

By Urban Carmel – The macro data from the past month continues to mostly point to positive growth. On balance, the evidence suggests the imminent onset of a recession is unlikely. The bond market agrees with the macro data.