Clif Droke's Contributions

There is a brewing economic destruction springing from the same policies that are responsible for the recovery (call it a “recovery unto death”). These policies are supposed to lead the U.S. out of recession and into a “new tomorrow” but as we’ll discuss here, the end result is likely to be something far short of what policy leaders envision.

With Wall Street extremely bullish on 2011, will the contrarian principle re-assert itself this year?

The Wall Street press is working overtime to generate enthusiasm over stocks among retail investors. Is this setting up the next major top?

Fear of inflation is growing, yet the U.S. shows all the classic symptoms of deflation. How can retail price inflation co-exist with a long wave deflationary trend? The answer can be found in a phenomenon known as "retroflation."

After the bottom of the 4-year cycle in September the stock market began what has been described, in the words of Samuel J. Kress, “the final cyclical bull market of the post-World War 2 expansionary era.” The months ahead could well be the last chance for individuals to prepare for the coming “winter” phase of the deflationary 60-year cycle which enters its final “hard down” phase in 2012 and bottoms in 2014.

There’s a wealth of wisdom to be found in ancient Chinese proverbs. Not uncommonly one can find answers to the most complex problems today by reading the simple yet elegant epigrams found in any collection of ancient sayings.

The legend and romance surrounding the famed stock plunger Jessie Livermore has long held a fascination among traders. Livermore has become somewhat of a cult in recent years and there are several books that purport to reveal his secrets for making a fortune in the stock market. None of them can hold a candle to the book which Livermore himself commissioned (written by journalist Edwin LeFevre) entitled Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.

The stock market has always been a dynamic affair but until the turn of the century 10 years ago, there were always a few tried-and-true relationships you could always count on. For instance, in the 20th century it was almost always true that if the broad market as reflected by the Dow or the S&P was rallying and the gold and oil stocks were also rallying, the rise in the broad market was viewed as suspect and in most cases would soon reverse.

The headline discussion in the financial press of late has been about the recently announced quantitative easing program that the Federal Reserve has said it will undertake in order to further stimulate the economy. Financial commentators have bled their pens dry in speculating what impact the so-called “QE2” will have on stock and commodity prices.

Now that we’re only two weeks or less away from the 4-year cycle bottom, it’s time to start thinking about the year-ahead outlook and what the coming months may bring. This year has been a rough one in patches due in no little measure to the influence to the 4-year down cycle. In previous years when the 4-year cycle has bottomed by itself it has tended to be rather mild in terms of the bottom itself (the cycle always bottoms around late September/early October) but has always created turbulence for the stock market in the months leading up to its bottom.

The XAU Gold Silver Index closed 2.69% higher on Tuesday at 190.63. The Gold Bugs Index (HUI) closed 3.36% higher at 495.99. December gold closed 1.835 higher at $1,268. December silver ended 1.71% higher at $20.50.

After a brief decline in July, gold once again finds itself in the investment spotlight as investors seeking safety from the turbulence of the bottoming 4-year cycle turn to gold.In its latest close, the gold price according to the 100 oz. COMEX index closed at $1,248.50 just below and within reach of its previous high of $1,260.

When Bert Dohmen talks, smart investors listen.

Many observers have been wondering if the upcoming 4-year cycle bottom in a few weeks will exert a negative impact on stock prices when the previous 4-year cycle bottom in 2006 barely registered. You may recall that the period from August through December of 2006 saw a stellar performance from the market that left many market technicians perplexed as to why the 4-year cycle bottom left no discernible impact on stock prices at that time.

At what point does a market crash translate to a lengthy bear market and/or an economic recession? This question was taken up by a celebrated historian of the early 20th century, one Otto C. Lightner.

The moving average crossover involving the 50-day/200-day MA last month was widely hailed as a “death cross” by technical analysts when it occurred in July. But instead of a market crash indicator, has the “death cross” instead become a contrarian indicator?

This year's volatility is a function of crossing cyclical currents and can be expected to continue intermittently until the 4-year cycle bottoms this fall. Here's some ways of dealing with it.

The mainstream news media depict two different directions for the U.S. economy. Is one side closer to the truth than the others? Or could both sides of the story be correct?

The Kress Cycle predicts that 2011 will culminate the dominance of the U.S. financial and economic system and begin a depression, the magnitude of which will be matched only by the one of 1930-1933.

Despite fears of a coming inflation, the evidence overwhelmingly supports the establishment of a deflationary economic trend. Recent government inaction threatens to accelerate this deflation.