Clif Droke's Contributions

The Counter-Intuitive Gold Play

Gold has so far enjoyed a terrific start to the New Year, most recently closing at its highest level late October 2013. It has even succeeded in closing above its psychologically significant 200-day moving average for the first time in over a year.

Gold’s Comeback and Bitcoin’s Silent Crash

Why gold and Bitcoin are heading in divergent directions, and what the near-term portends for the yellow metal.

Will 2014 Be Another 2008?

In view of the many long-term cycles bottoming this year, can investors expect a repeat of the 2008 credit crash?

Why the 40-Year Cycle Is Bad News for Stocks

Two cycles, the 8-year and 40-year, are making their presence felt in emerging markets. History says this will also spill over into U.S. equities.

What Could Go Wrong for Stocks and Right for Gold in 2014

Are investors too bullish on the stock market’s prospects for 2014 and too bearish for gold’s? It would certainly seem that way based on the near unanimity of analyst consensus. Most institutional analysts have published bullish forecasts for equities in 2014 and a bearish, or...

Surprising Hedge Fund Plays of 2014

A look at two areas where hedge fund activity could have major repercussions in the year ahead.

Bitcoin’s Prospects for 2014

Is it a bubble or mania destined for collapse? Or can it beat the odds and become a viable alternative to the dollar?

Gold and the 120-Year Cycle Bottom

In this commentary we explore the relationship between gold/silver and the upcoming 120-year cycle bottom in 2014.

A Melt-Up, Then a Melt-Down in 2014

Market events such as crashes and panics are thought by economists to be random, unpredictable events. To the contrary, such events are nothing if not predictable and often arrive with recognizable regularity.

The Dollar’s Demise and the Rise of Bitcoin

One of the questions investors have been asking lately concerns the outlook for the U.S. dollar index. Investors are understandably concerned by the dollar’s weakness and worry that perhaps that any notable increase in inflation could lead to further erosion in the dollar’s value.

Is It 1929 All Over Again?

An examination of the parallels between 1929 and today yields some intriguing clues for what may happen to the stock market in 2014.

The Kress Cycle and the Fate of the Middle Class

An overlooked long-term cycle explains why the middle class is shrinking. We also examine China and the short-term gold outlook.

Bubbles, Bubbles Everywhere

A flood of bubble-related news stories suggests that the widely feared market collapse is not an imminent threat.

Why Gold and Silver Are Having a Tough Time

Why analysts have the cause-and-effect relationship between gold and QE wrong. Also we examine the silver near-term outlook.

The “Melt-Up” Scenario for 2014

Market mavens have increasingly turned their talk to a possible “melt-up” scenario in the stock market. The big fear entering 2014 is that another runaway freight train-type stock market, like the one preceding the 2008 crash, is gathering momentum.

Fed Official Admits Failure

The shocking confession of a former Federal Reserve official regarding the QE program. Also an update on the gold/dollar short-term scenario.

When Inflation Strikes Back

Is there such thing as too little inflation? To listen to some economists the answer is an emphatic “no!” Fed chief Ben Bernanke certainly doesn’t believe in the concept of low inflation. Neither does ECB president Mari Draghi.

Are Investors Too Bullish on Stocks?

At least three important measures of investor sentiment point to a potential top on the near horizon for equities.

Gold vs. Wall Street’s Program Traders

Gold's test of a critical long-term moving average is Wall Street's "line in the sand" between an interim bull and bear market. What will it take for gold to re-launch the bull trend?

Why You Don’t Feel Richer After Four Years of Recovery

Statistics can sometimes, as we all know, be very misleading. Take the unemployment report for example. If you examine the numbers out of context, you’d be forced to conclude that workforce participation has steadily increased over the last four years.

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