Clif Droke's Contributions

Many investors wonder if rates have finally bottomed. In this commentary we discuss what the Kress cycle outlook is for rates.

The aim of the “fiscal cliff” deal was to reduce the U.S. budget deficit, but its effect was tantamount to a bullet in the chest of the consumer recovery. We also discuss the future of inflation in today’s commentary.

Regardless of how the fiscal cliff scenario turns out, and regardless of gold's long-term fundamentals. there's a simple rule that investors ignore at their peril. Find out what it is here.

Interview with Bert concerning his forecast of the coming China crisis, the global economy, the U.S. “fiscal cliff” and the likelihood of another worldwide financial crisis.

After four years of intervention, the Fed's efforts have failed to counteract the strong undercurrents of the long-term deflationary cycle. The worst part of this cycle begins in just a few months.

An increase in credit, along with positive seasonal and internal factors, has bought the stock market a near-term reprieve. Also, we discuss the bullish outlook for the U.S. retail sales season.

In view of recent selling pressure, many investors wonder if gold can shine in 2013. In this installment we examine some crucial technical and fundamental factors for a gold recovery. We also make a holiday retail sales prediction for the U.S.

In this commentary we’ll survey the intermediate-term to longer-term market terrain. This is especially important since we’re about to enter a new year, which the Kress cycle outlook describes as potentially dangerous from a financial market and economic perspective.

With the 4-year cycle having peaked and the New Economy Index turning bearish, the prospects for another economic downturn in 2013 are increasing.

Many are asking what impact the Fed’s latest monetary policy action will have on the projected deflationary scenario for 2013-14. The answer to the above question holds profound implications for investors in stocks, commodities and real estate.

Investors often ask how the gold price can appreciate during a deflationary debt crisis. In this article we'll discover the ways gold will benefit from the global debt crisis due to accelerate in 2013-14.

Two major (and opposite) factors account for gold's rise since July. Here we analyze them and explain why both factors should continue propelling gold into the 2014 long-wave cycle bottom.

Stock and commodity prices across the board soared on the latest announcement from the Fed, which was viewed as wildly bullish by Wall Street. As was the case with the previous two quantitative easing programs, gold and the gold stocks love the idea of loose money and should benefit from it.

Last week was pivotal for equities as well as a reminder that the 3 ½ year-old recovery is still alive. It was also a reminder that the important 4-year cycle is still peaking and still holds sway over the market. In this commentary we'll examine the effects of this cycle and the outlook for equities in view of internal momentum currents and coming events.

Gold's recent breakout has prompted many to wonder if another round of Fed easing is in the works. The indicators which Fed chief Bernanke looks at himself provide the clues to answering this question.

The lack of military aggression this year has led many to believe that America’s days of military adventures are over. But as we’ll see here, 2012 is simply a temporary respite in a longer-term “theater” of war that has only just passed the opening act. Gold is poised to benefit from it.

Lately investors have been worried about liquidity, specifically the central bank’s willingness (or unwillingness) to continue providing it. In this article we examine why the Fed's belated response to the long-wave will spell the end of the economic recovery by early 2013.

The global rebound which began in 2009 is winding down according to several indicators and should be over by early 2013. In this commentary we discuss the particulars of the coming end of the economic rebound.

The summer has been a dizzying one for commodities. The last four weeks have witnessed the price of corn soaring toward an all-time high due to withering heat in the Corn Belt states. At the same time, this weather-driven bull market in the grain market, as well as the recent oil price rally, has left investors wondering if this summer might finally be gold’s time to shine.

Investors are worried that this summer will witness a repeat of the summer debacles of 2010 and 2011. Is the market’s recent behavior a portent of worse things to come? In this commentary we’ll try and determine whether the market will fulfill the bears’ expectations or disappoint them.