Sep 24 – Ryan Puplava discusses the key drivers behind this week's market volatility with Evergrande, the Fed, and more. Ari Wald at Oppenheimer joins us to provide his technical outlook on the US stock market and says we could be in the midst...
Feb 12 – After this week's wrap-up, Jonathan Krinsky from BayCrest Partners says the bearish window is closing and a correction may have been pushed out as investors ride the liquidity wave higher. Next, Tim Duy explains how the Fed is likely...
Sep 12 – FS Insider interviews Tim Duy, writer at Fed Watch and columnist for Bloomberg View, to discuss the Fed’s econometric-centric view of the economy moving in and out of equilibrium, whether new Fed Chair Jerome Powell is stepping away...
Jackson Hole came and went with little reason to believe the Federal Reserve will do anything other than raise interest rates in September and again in December of this year. Bloomberg has a quick rundown of the action...
By Tim Duy – It is very much possible that when the Fed hits the neutral rate, the impact of past tightening has yet to filter through much to the overall economy. Continuing blindly forward might then be a critical policy...
By Tim Duy – The July employment report provides additional evidence to support the Fed’s campaign to tighten policy rates. At the same time, subdued wage growth indicates that despite anecdotal evidence of rising...
By Tim Duy – The U.S. economy performed about as well as might be expected in the first half of 2018, growing at an average pace of 3.15% in a “new normal” world where the longer-term speed limit might be just 1.8%.
By Tim Duy – The day of reckoning for the Fed may soon be at hand. With the yield curve continuing to flatten and the 10-2 spread falling to a meager 33 basis points this week, an inversion before the end of the year...
By Tim Duy – Headlines blared the latest recession warning today, this time from David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff & Associates. The culprit will be the Fed: “Cycles die, and you know how they die?” Rosenberg told the Inside...
By Tim Duy - Central bankers are set to hike interest rates at this week’s meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), an outcome widely expected by market participants and thus should come as no surprise.
By Tim Duy PhD – Incoming data on the manufacturing and services sectors as well as the job market continue to support a narrative of strong growth that will encourage the Federal Reserve in its campaign to push policy rates to...
By Tim Duy – The jobs report gives the Fed cover to retain a gradual rate path. To be sure, the rapid pace of job growth will leave them nervous about an unsustainable pace of growth. But the flat unemployment rate remains...
By Tim Duy – Last Friday the Bureau of Labor Statistics released a fairly lackluster employment report. In most ways, the story remains the same – steady improvement in the labor market but no signs of overheating in...
By Tim Duy PhD – The Federal Reserve remains committed to a December rate hike, persistently low inflation notwithstanding. With unemployment below Fed estimates of its longer-run natural rate, most FOMC participants do...
By Tim Duy PhD – Big data week ahead that ends with the employment report for September. Considering the ongoing inflation weakness, one would think the Fed would be looking for a series of very strong job reports to...
By Tim Duy PhD – Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen made clear two things this week. First, that her and her colleagues are somewhat confounded by the inflation data. And second, that confusion does not yet deter them from their plan for gradual rate hikes.
Some quick thoughts for the day. First, New York Federal Reserve President William Dudley gave an extended interview to the Associate Press. Definitely worth the time to read. Overall, Dudley continues to adhere to what amounts to the Fed's median...
By Tim Duy – Along with every decent employment report comes the efforts to debunk that report. I see that an article from Pedro Nicolaci Da Costa at Business Insider is making the rounds tonight. In it, Da Costa directs us to this in...
By Tim Duy – A generally upbeat June 2017 employment report supports the Fed's case for additional monetary tightening, most likely in the form of balance sheet action in September followed up by a 25bp rate hike in December.
By Tim Duy PhD – Over at Project Syndicate, Brad DeLong takes issue with Fed policy decisions. Importantly, he identifies, correctly, that the Fed's forecasting record in recent years has been less than optimal. Much less. The repeated...
