Tom McClellan's Contributions

There is a giant wall of short positions held by the smart-money “commercial” traders in crude oil futures, and it is going to lead oil prices to come crashing down. Each week, the CFTC reports on the numbers of long and short positions held by futures traders...

When investors get complacent, they do certain things. They show up as bullish in the various surveys. They bid tiny premiums on options, driving down the VIX. They put all of their cash to work, letting money market fund levels get...

When the NYSE’s A-D Line hits a new high, it conveys a clear message that liquidity is plentiful. The market might encounter other types of problems, such as investors’ emotions suddenly swinging, or a big news event rocking the market.

I got to wondering about all of the NYSE traders on CNBC sporting their “Dow 20,000” hats. Hitting that level seems elusive, but they keep them at the ready. Interestingly, if they would do just a tiny bit of embroidery modification...

Just a week ago, China was facing a banking system crisis that necessitated an injection of 375 billion yuan ($53 billion) into the money market, and that was after the prior week’s injection of 250 billion yuan ($36 billion). But now, after Christmas has passed...

During the post-election stock market rally, there has been a huge push into ETFs, and especially into SPY. It is the largest of the ETFs tied to the SP500 Index. It is normal to see fluctuations over time, with total shares outstanding...

Gold prices have shown an unusually strong correlation to bond prices this year. This is not normal, and the two are not usually marching in lockstep like this. The strong correlation began around May 2016. It may just be a coincidence that...

Investors worldwide have suddenly caught a whiff of inflation, and have overreacted in response. That overreaction can be seen quite well in the big spike higher in copper prices, a rally which is now starting to be dismantled.

Investors get fearful ahead of a big election because the outcome is unknown. Unknown risks are what investors fear most. Now that the result is decided, we have known risks to deal with. Investors were also fearful ahead of the 2012 election...

Since the 2000 election, I have been tracking how the presidential election poll numbers follow in the footsteps of the stock market, with the key insight that we can gauge how the popular vote is likely to turn out based on how the stock...

When there is a big disagreement between the value of the spot VIX Index and the prices of its futures contracts, that carries important information about trader sentiment. As of the close on Sep. 28, 2016, the spot VIX was well below...

We have an unblemished 21-year track record of predicting what the Fed should do, with 100% accuracy. What the FOMC actually does is often different from what it should do. As of the Sep. 21 FOMC meeting announcement...

The regular McClellan Oscillator is based on Advance-Decline (A-D) data for the NYSE. But the same calculation can be done on other sets of A-D data. This week’s chart looks at an interesting example of that, with a big...

Housing-related stocks are seeing an earlier than called for a push to a higher high. But if lumber prices are right, there are lots more gains to come. By that, I am referring to the way that lumber prices tend to give a 1-year leading indication for...

The history of the S&P 500 dates all the way back to 1871, thanks to the work of the Cowles Commission in the 1930s which reconstructed an index of stock prices back that far. That index eventually morphed into the S&P...

I like to watch the data on the number of shares outstanding in certain select ETFs, and one of the best for this purpose is the biggest one, SPY. It tracks the SP500, and it currently has $196 billion invested in it. So it is a big deal.

If you want to have a recipe for a sustainable bull market, the best ingredient to start with is “gobs of breadth”. Strong A-D data is a sign of plentiful liquidity. The stock market can encounter other types of problems, but if liquidity is strong...