Evelyn Garriss's Blog

Expect a strong El Nino this winter to warmer conditions in the northern tier of states and most of Canada. This should lead to lower heating demand, as well as fewer travel and transportation difficulties. The southern tier of states should get cooler, wetter...

Over the next 6 months, two major climate factors will shape global weather. In the tropics is a strong El Niño event that some headlines have described as a “Godzilla El Niño.” To the north, swirling in the Arctic air, is the sulfuric debris from the giant eruption...

The economic impact of the El Niño is widespread. It is benign for most of US agriculture and lowers winter heating demand for most of Canada and large portions of the Western and Northern US. However, the impacts on other portions of the North American economy are not as favorable.

China, like the US, has had its precipitation patterns severely altered by the changed Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). However, as a nation dominated by seasonal monsoons, the impact has been much more complex.

Three factors – volcanic debris, more variable polar jet streams and increased human habitation in high-risk areas – are creating extreme weather and high insurance payouts. Some of these are temporary while other factors will last for decades.

The changes in precipitation patterns created by the negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) have made some agricultural areas more productive and others more drought-prone. This article has maps that show which areas of the globe will be facing major changes.

Insurance companies and individuals are facing more climate-related disasters. At the same time, the reliability of several climate disasterwarning systems have changed, due to changing large- cale ocean oscillations. Drought warning have improved, but tropical storm and El Niño warnings have become less reliable.

Approximately 40% of US land is arable while only 11% of China can be farmed with relatively small weather changes affecting a greater proportion of Chinese crop productivity. Also, China’s farmland is in its densely settled eastern provinces while the majority of US farmland is in the relatively under-populated central regions.

On March 23, 2012, the US broke all tornado records with 319 reported tornadoes. The high temperatures, combined with the fact that winter left most of the nation’s ground unfrozen, has created ideal conditions for the type of low-lying thunder storms that are ideal for twister development. Mexico is facing the worst drought in its nation’s history. The water shortage wiped out millions of acres of farmland this winter, caused 15 billion pesos ($1.18 billion) in lost harvests, killed 60,000 head of cattle and weakened 2 million more livestock.

It has to be one of the strangest weather phenomena of the decade. A Bournemouth, England resident was rained on by marble-sized balls of blue jelly. When he gingerly collected the slime, the Bournemouth University reported that they appeared to be fish eggs. Unfortunately, it was slimy blue mystery eggs, not caviar.