Kurt Kallaus's Blog

Dec 7 – Concerns over the escalating U.S. – China trade war that could cause earnings to downgrade to contagion in 2019 has been a major factor in lower stocks prices. The S&P 500 and Dow stock indices just finished their third test of the...

Nov 6 – Stock prices will stay on the defensive in the months ahead due to the trade dispute between China and the U.S., peak profit margins and downward earning growth forecasts. The equity bull market can be sustained and a recession can be avoided...

Oct. 30 - The current market correction is down roughly 11 percent intraday from the Oct. 3 peak and six percent below the point when this moving average was broken, so statistically there is time and price potential for more pain in the months ahead...

By Kurt Kallaus – Our expected October correction mirroring 2016 allowed for a matching 7.4% drop as in 2016 and, so far, October 2018 didn’t disappoint with an almost identical drop of 7.9%. While higher interest rates and concerns of contagion...

By Kurt Kallaus – Trump’s claim of bringing back American manufacturing jobs is boastful but does have some truth. Since the manufacturing halcyon days of the 1970s, the US dollar was allowed to depreciate and cheap labor abroad sent US...

By Kurt Kallaus – Today’s near record low unemployment should support a robust economic expansion but has confounded economists expecting worrisome inflation. The inflation to unemployment sensitivity was strong in the 1960s and 1970s...

By Kurt Kallaus – With oil surging to an October peak and perhaps the most contentious mid-term election in history on November 2nd, we posit that stock prices are moving into a trading range with a corrective trend starting as we inch closer to the election...

By Kurt Kallaus – We are a couple years into a new net-asset expansion phase today, thus exit signs for stocks become more important over the next year. With the sentiment and wealth surge amidst rising tension with China just before the mid-term elections...

By Kurt Kallaus – Recently concern has risen over a pending low in unemployment data among other signs of a major stock market and economic top. While a bit presumptuous to assume unemployment can’t go much lower...

By Kurt Kallaus – Toll Brothers stock, one of the largest home builders, is down a whopping 35% from its peak this year as housing prices keep reaching new astronomical heights. The median home price in Tribeca, Manhattan is over...