Lance Roberts's Contributions

The latest NFIB survey of small businesses for June was a mixed bag of results. There were spots of improvments in employment plans, expectations of economic improvement and price changes.

The recent sell off in the markets during the month of June sent the "bulls-a-runnin" with investor sentiment dropping sharply as market prices fell and volatility increased.

The recent release of economic data have showed some improvements at the margin as of late. While these improvements in the data are certainly welcome it is important for us to look at the data in terms of their ongoing trends to determine whether the recent improvements are just bumps or a more sustainable improvement.

While much of the sell off has been attributed to the Federal Reserves statement yesterday I fear that the real culprit is likely a potential resurgence in the Euro-zone crisis as witnessed by spiking yields across the region and an announcement today that the IMF is likely to cease funding aid to Greece.

In an interesting report from Gallup Americans' self-reported daily spending rose to an average of $90 in May, the highest since October 2008 and higher than it has been in May since the $114 found in the same month in 2008.

The latest release of the National Federation of Independent Business small business survey showed an improvement in the latest reading to 94.4 up from 92.1 last month. Overall, the readings were positive and this is the second strongest overall reading of the recovery since 2009.

One of the primary debates that is currently raging is whether, or not, the economy is currently experiencing a "soft patch" of activity and is set to begin a longer sustained recovery.

The current trend of the various economic data points on a broad scale are not showing indications of stronger economic growth but rather a continuation of a sub-par "muddle through" scenario of the last three years.

The most obvious driver of stocks currently is the Federal Reserve's ongoing balance sheet expansion program which pushes liquidity directly into the financial markets.

Existing home sales for April came in at 4.97 million from an upwardly revised March reading of 4.94 million (originally 4.92 million.) However, the question remains that with rising home prices, and tightening supply, when do potential buyers get priced out of home ownership?

There have been quite a few bold predictions, since the beginning of the year, that the dollar was set to soar and that the great "bond bull market" was dead.

So, apparently, according to Jon Hilsenrath, "QE to Infinity" is actually "finite" after all. With Ben Bernanke set to "exit stage left" in 2014 the question of who replaces him at the helm of the massive USS "Federal Reserve" will be important as to the future of the current course of monetary policy.

Just recently the April employment report was released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) which showed a surprise jump in employment for the month of April of 165,000 jobs. The general consensus for the report was 153,000 jobs so the "better than expected" news was credited to the surge in the financial markets.

Part VI is the last of the series of reports from the 10th annual Strategic Investment Conference, presented by Altegis Investments and John Mauldin. Dr. Lacy Hunt, of Hoisington Investment Management, presents his views of the impact on economies when they become heavily leveraged.

In Part IV of the series of reports from the 10th annual Strategic Investment Conference, presented by Altegis Investments and John Mauldin, Mohamed El-Erian ties together the views of the previous presenters.

As investors it is critically important to be aware of the rising risks in the markets. History tells us that reversions are swift and brutal things that give individuals little warning with which to protect investment capital.

Recently, Henry Blodget wrote that "The Economic Argument Is Over - And Paul Krugman Won." The premise of the article is that the ongoing debate between economic schools of thought, since the financial crisis began, over what policies were necessary to get the domestic and international economies growing again has been resolved.

The latest data from on existing and new home sales show that the recovery in housing may be in the early stages of sputtering.

Evidence continues to mount that we have seen the peak of activity for the current economic cycle. The implications of such an occurrence are broad and suggests that the Fed's liquidity driven interventions, and zero interest rate policy, may have well seen the end of their effectiveness.m

With the recent release of the March ISM Purchasing Manager surveys I can now compile the ISM Composite Index. In March the manufacturing survey declined from 54.2 in February to 51.3 in March while the non-manufacturing survey fell from 56.0 to 54.4.