Kurt Kallaus's Contributions

By Kurt Kallaus – A Bloomberg article recently joined the chorus of stock market naysayers with a specious claim that the current record optimism displayed by Small Business surveys signaled that a market correction was due. Panics can occur almost anytime...

By Kurt Kallaus – This week the markets are dealing with the fear of an Italian political crisis if Italy leaves the Eurozone and defaults on its debt, adding yet another layer of uncertainty into the markets beyond China, NAFTA, North Korea, and Iran. Stocks are unlikely...

By Kurt Kallaus – As the China trade war rhetoric in 2018 finally shifts toward intensifying negotiations in late May, the clueless global audience are pawns in a tit-for-tat public relations (PR) campaign by the US and China. The US is demanding the elimination...

By Kurt Kallaus – The current earnings season has reached a record 80% of companies beating estimates. Such optimism will need tapering in the weeks ahead, putting stock market multiples at risk. With stocks stagnating despite great earnings, prices...

By Kurt Kallaus – Global mergers and acquisitions (M&A) had their best start ever in 2018, totaling $1.2 trillion as the value of M&A deals increased 67% year over year. M&A volumes doubled in Europe in the first quarter, while the United States was up 67%...

By Kurt Kallaus – Much like mortgage debt is to home prices, margin debt is to stock prices. With the Dow rising 25% and hitting new record highs every fourth day on average during 2017, borrowings for stock purchases have been hitting new records in tandem...

By Kurt Kallaus – The rebuilding of America is underway. Both political parties want an infrastructure spending bill, yet gridlock is likely to prevent the desired $1.5 Trillion Bill ($150 Billion/year) as it requires...

By Kurt Kallaus – With the half a trillion annual trade deficit and accumulated $9.6 trillion deficit since the year 2000, Trump is echoing populist thinking that the US has the leverage to make better deals and that foreign countries have more to lose than the US...

By Kurt Kallaus – After almost 2 years of poor earnings performance going into the 2016 elections, the S&P 500 Index earnings per share (EPS) has grown strongly in each of the last 5 reporting periods ending March 1st 2018.

By Kurt Kallaus – Automation and Artificial Intelligence (AI) are spurring an economic and cultural shift toward customizable multi-stream contract work as demand for traditional jobs are eliminated. Independent contractors and...

By Kurt Kallaus – In recent months we have been warning that the first deep dive in stocks since Trump’s 2016 election would be in the 1st quarter 2018. Once Trump passed the Tax cuts last December we opined...

By Kurt Kallaus – Traditional economic theory holds that a cheaper domestic currency relative to other trading partners reduces imports and boosts exports as our widgets become cheaper from the perspective of other countries and inflation pressures rise...

By Kurt Kallaus – Our bullish September 2017 outlook to buy the dips in Q4 2017 and Q1 2018 remains in place until at least May. Until then, selling the rallies entails greater price risk than buying the $3+ dips. Once the outcome of potential US sanctions...

By Kurt Kallaus – A look inside the NFIB business survey reveals interesting support for the high expectations at present. Businesses are declaring now is one of the best times ever to expand. While finding workers is THE number one problem businesses have...

By Kurt Kallaus – Our theme for 2018 is for an even stronger economy accompanied by slowing stock market growth as compared to 2017. Much of the slow recovery since 2009 has been on the backs of the consumer without the normal contribution of investment...

By Kurt Kallaus – Our theme that a new business cycle expansion began in 2016 is easy to see when looking at the renewed strength in the basic industrial and material sectors, which we have highlighted in past newsletters. Less obvious—and just as important however...

By Kurt Kallaus – One of the hallmarks of a Bull market is climbing a “Wall of Worry”. Certainly, there is plenty of longer-term optimism with Consumer and Small Business surveys showing extreme confidence. Yet analysts seem...

By Kurt Kallaus – Each year of this enduring slow-growth expansion cycle starting in 2009 has had a growing chorus of doomsayers looking for the next recession. The evidence in forecasting the next economic peak resembles...