Matthew Kerkhoff's Blog

May 14 – Markets are rebounding today after yesterday’s precipitous fall, in which the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrials both experienced their worst day in four months. But make no mistake – the short-term trend remains down...

Apr 10 – Right now, the trailing 12-month P/E ratio for the S&P 500 sits at about 21.5. That works out to an earnings yield of about 4.65 percent. Compared to the 2.5 percent yield that Treasuries currently provide, the valuation of stocks can be considered...

Feb 26 – Watching which sectors of the market outperform after one of these events provides clues as to what type of economic environment to expect. If investors are snapping up defensive sectors like utilities and consumer staples, it signals concern about...

Jan 16 – Anyone who has taken a cruise knows that the seas, though often calm, can quickly turn treacherous. Those, like myself, who are prone to bouts of seasickness appreciate the inclusion of stabilizers on each side of a ship’s hull...

By Matthew Kerkhoff – We’re entering a seasonally strong period of the year with modest valuation levels and a strong economy. If you add in a tailwind from reduced trade friction, we could be in for a strong few months. Nowhere is this more evident than...

By Matthew Kerkoff – In last week’s article I elaborated on why it’s important to allow the economic backdrop to guide us when price action becomes erratic. Today, I thought we would take a short tour of the...

By Matthew Kerkhoff – What’s the best thing to talk about when the market is firing on all cylinders? Recessions, of course. Rather than getting caught up in the excitement of Nasdaq 8,000, which we reached today, or the fact...

By Matthew Kerkhoff – The story of 2018 has been one of U.S. growth, but not necessarily global growth. While most major economies around the world are still expanding, they have been decelerating or holding steady...

By Matthew Kerkhoff – Right now, in terms of price, the S&P 500 is less than 1% away from its high-water mark set at the end of January. But take a look at what has happened to the S&P 500’s P/E during that time.

By Matthew Kerkhoff – If we are, in fact, in a trade war – then who’s winning? Is it the U.S.? China? Perhaps the smaller countries that don’t appear in the headlines each day? From my perspective, there are two ways to answer this question.