Aug 22 – Ten-year Treasury yields have been cut in half over the past 10 months with the steepest drop in recent weeks. Matthew Kerkhoff explains the two possible explanations for this—recession or a flood of capital into U.S. bonds—and why...
Jul 10 – Today on FS Insider, we explain how the Fed is very likely to cut rates at the end of this month and then ask the question, “Should they?” We discuss the cases for and against cutting rates with Model Investing’s Chief Investment Strategist Matthew Kerkhoff who clearly thinks....––
May 14 – Markets are rebounding today after yesterday’s precipitous fall, in which the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrials both experienced their worst day in four months. But make no mistake – the short-term trend remains down...
Apr 10 – Right now, the trailing 12-month P/E ratio for the S&P 500 sits at about 21.5. That works out to an earnings yield of about 4.65 percent. Compared to the 2.5 percent yield that Treasuries currently provide, the valuation of stocks can be considered...
Mar 13 – FS Insider speaks with Model Investing’s Chief Investment Strategist Matthew Kerkhoff on the 10-year bull market anniversary in US stocks as of March 9, 2019 and what Dow Theory has to say about it...
Feb 26 – Watching which sectors of the market outperform after one of these events provides clues as to what type of economic environment to expect. If investors are snapping up defensive sectors like utilities and consumer staples, it signals concern about...
Jan 16 – Anyone who has taken a cruise knows that the seas, though often calm, can quickly turn treacherous. Those, like myself, who are prone to bouts of seasickness appreciate the inclusion of stabilizers on each side of a ship’s hull...
Jan 15 – FS Insider interviews Matthew Kerkhoff, Chief Investment Strategist at Model Investing, on how the recent uptick in unemployment is a good thing, what big players are predicting for the first quarter based on the VIX futures...
By Matthew Kerkhoff – We’re entering a seasonally strong period of the year with modest valuation levels and a strong economy. If you add in a tailwind from reduced trade friction, we could be in for a strong few months. Nowhere is this more evident than...
By Matthew Kerkoff – In last week’s article I elaborated on why it’s important to allow the economic backdrop to guide us when price action becomes erratic. Today, I thought we would take a short tour of the...
Aug 30 – An inversion of the yield curve is said to be one of the most accurate predictors of a market top and economic recession. Today, we’re going to a deep dive into why that is, its historical accuracy, and when it’s time to get worried...
By Matthew Kerkhoff – What’s the best thing to talk about when the market is firing on all cylinders? Recessions, of course. Rather than getting caught up in the excitement of Nasdaq 8,000, which we reached today, or the fact...
By Matthew Kerkhoff – The story of 2018 has been one of U.S. growth, but not necessarily global growth. While most major economies around the world are still expanding, they have been decelerating or holding steady...
By Matthew Kerkhoff – Right now, in terms of price, the S&P 500 is less than 1% away from its high-water mark set at the end of January. But take a look at what has happened to the S&P 500’s P/E during that time.
By Matthew Kerkhoff – If we are, in fact, in a trade war – then who’s winning? Is it the U.S.? China? Perhaps the smaller countries that don’t appear in the headlines each day? From my perspective, there are two ways to answer this question.
By Matthew Kerkhoff – Back in early February, in the midst of the most vicious selloff we’ve seen in years, I showed the chart below and made the case that we were seeing a “minor blow-off top in the context of a continuing primary...
By Matthew Kerkhoff – China and the US slapped $34 billion worth of levies on each other’s exports last Friday, and the markets said, “yeah, whatever,” and marched higher. The question is, why? Market moves often baffle...
By Matthew Kerkhoff – Dow Theory considers daily action in the stock market to be nothing more than noise, and that presupposition may be gaining in importance. I’ve been hanging on to the chart below, waiting for an opportune...
Jun 20 – Matthew Kerkhoff, Chief Investment Strategist at Model Investing, tells FS Insider that they are completely out of the bond market with increasing inflationary pressures and the negative drag bonds are having on...
By Matthew Kerkhoff – Successfully predict the start of the next recession, plus or minus a few months, and you stand to make a lot of money. Not only can you reposition your portfolio towards bonds and cash – typically...
